Opinion | Don’t second-guess the Ukrainian counteroffensive. It’s just starting.

Columnist Max Boot writes: “The Ukrainian counteroffensive is less than a month old and already the murmurs of defeatism are starting, with unnamed “Western officials” telling CNN that it is “not meeting expectations on any front.” Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky concedes that the counteroffensive is going “slower than desired.”

In truth, the plodding pace of the advance should not be a surprise or a cause for serious concern, yet.”

The one time in this war the Russians were caught with their pants down was during the surprise Ukrainian attack in Kharkiv province in September, which liberated more than 1,100 square miles in a matter of days. But that feat is hard to replicate. More typical was the Ukrainian counteroffensive that required more than two months (from Aug. 29 to Nov. 11, 2022) to liberate the southern city of Kherson.

The Ukrainian task today is considerably more difficult than it was then because, in the seven months since, the Kremlin has mobilized many more men and built many more fortifications and minefields. […] The Ukrainians are going slowly because they are trying to limit their casualties — something that bloodthirsty Russian commanders don’t care about. It is doubtful that any Western military could do any better without air superiority.

Instead of judging the Ukrainians, the West should be doing more to aid them. […] There is also a lot of equipment that the Biden administration has simply refused to provide, such as the long-range Army Tactical Missile System that could help the Ukrainians to more effectively target Russian bases and supply lines in Crimea, or F-16s that could enable the Ukrainians to defend their troops from attacks by Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters. The F-16s might finally be on the way from Europe in the fall — too late to affect this counteroffensive. U.S. Abrams tanks will also arrive too late for this fighting season. In addition, the Ukrainians are short of armored mine-clearing vehicles and bridging equipment to traverse trenches.

While Secretary of State Antony Blinken claims that the Ukrainians “have in hand what they need to be successful,” that might not be true. If the Ukrainians succeed, it will be despite the limitations of their equipment and training. If their offensive doesn’t break through, it will be because they have not been given enough of the needed weapons — particularly modern fighter aircraft and long-range missiles. […]

We in the West can’t determine who rules in the Kremlin. But by backing Ukraine to the hilt, we can add to the pressure on Vladimir Putin’s criminal regime, whose cracks are beginning to show after nearly 16 months of war. […] Ukraine can still take advantage — as long as its supporters in the West show the requisite patience.

Columnist Max Boot writes: “The Ukrainian counteroffensive is less than a month old and already the murmurs of defeatism are starting, with unnamed “Western officials” telling CNN that it is “not meeting expectations on any front.” Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky concedes that the counteroffensive is going “slower than desired.”

In truth, the plodding pace of the advance should not be a surprise or a cause for serious concern, yet.”

The one time in this war the Russians were caught with their pants down was during the surprise Ukrainian attack in Kharkiv province in September, which liberated more than 1,100 square miles in a matter of days. But that feat is hard to replicate. More typical was the Ukrainian counteroffensive that required more than two months (from Aug. 29 to Nov. 11, 2022) to liberate the southern city of Kherson.

The Ukrainian task today is considerably more difficult than it was then because, in the seven months since, the Kremlin has mobilized many more men and built many more fortifications and minefields. […] The Ukrainians are going slowly because they are trying to limit their casualties — something that bloodthirsty Russian commanders don’t care about. It is doubtful that any Western military could do any better without air superiority.

Instead of judging the Ukrainians, the West should be doing more to aid them. […] There is also a lot of equipment that the Biden administration has simply refused to provide, such as the long-range Army Tactical Missile System that could help the Ukrainians to more effectively target Russian bases and supply lines in Crimea, or F-16s that could enable the Ukrainians to defend their troops from attacks by Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters. The F-16s might finally be on the way from Europe in the fall — too late to affect this counteroffensive. U.S. Abrams tanks will also arrive too late for this fighting season. In addition, the Ukrainians are short of armored mine-clearing vehicles and bridging equipment to traverse trenches.

While Secretary of State Antony Blinken claims that the Ukrainians “have in hand what they need to be successful,” that might not be true. If the Ukrainians succeed, it will be despite the limitations of their equipment and training. If their offensive doesn’t break through, it will be because they have not been given enough of the needed weapons — particularly modern fighter aircraft and long-range missiles. […]

We in the West can’t determine who rules in the Kremlin. But by backing Ukraine to the hilt, we can add to the pressure on Vladimir Putin’s criminal regime, whose cracks are beginning to show after nearly 16 months of war. […] Ukraine can still take advantage — as long as its supporters in the West show the requisite patience.